Cement
East continues to lead dispatch growth in October
Given the unavailability of volume dispatches by ACC and Ambuja Cement, we have done the entire analysis of the monthly cement dispatches after adjusting the previous year?s numbers for ACC and Ambuja Cement. Cement dispatch figures for October 2009 grew to 12.2 million metric tonne (MMT), implying an increase of 9.1% year on year (yoy). The dispatch growth was mainly on account of post-monsoon and festival season pick-up in infrastructure activity and the low base effect. On a sequential basis, dispatches improved by 4% as compared to September 2009.
During the month under review the eastern region continued to witness the highest volume growth of 25.5%. The central and northern regions posted dispatch growth of 12.9% and 8.7% respectively. In October 2008 both central and western regions witnessed a decline in the volume yoy, which resulted in a low base for October 2009 for the central and western regions. The southern region continued to register a poor performance with a volume growth of 5.8%.
Among the cement companies under our coverage, India Cements emerged as a frontrunner with its volume growing by 34.5% yoy to 0.8MMT in October 2009. Grasim Industries and Shree Cement also registered impressive volume growth of 13.3% yoy and 12.3% yoy respectively. Top cement makers posted a mix performance in terms of volume growth for the month. On the other hand, companies like Orient Paper and Industries Ltd (OPIL) continued to post a negative volume growth of 11.3%.
In October the prices declined across the country by an average of Rs8-10 per bag of 50kg. Among the regions, the cement prices fell sharply in the southern and western regions. In Hyderabad the price fall was the sharpest in the last 15 years with the price quoting in the range of Rs130-140 per bag. On the other hand, the western region is also facing a similar situation on account of a slowdown in exports and increased supply from the southern market. The average cement price in Gujarat declined by Rs15-20 per bag during the month under review. Going forward, we believe with the stabilisation of the upcoming capacities the cement prices are expected to remain under pressure.
The recent correction in cement prices across the country and cost inflation in terms of an increase in the price of raw materials and domestic coal are expected to put pressure on the margin of the cement companies in the coming quarters. Moreover, the clubbing of the new capacities in the second half would also put pressure on the realisations. Going forward, we believe companies in the southern and western regions would face severe pressure on their realisation because of an increased supply and a poor demand.